【好展會(huì)網(wǎng)】 多名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)者預(yù)測(cè)中國(guó)第三季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)9%左右，很可能恢復(fù)金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)前水平 <br> <br>　　中國(guó)進(jìn)出口商品交易會(huì)副主任、中國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易中心黨委書記王志平18日透露：本屆廣交會(huì)的訂單結(jié)構(gòu)有了可喜變化———此前在金融風(fēng)暴影響下，企業(yè)收到的多是小單、短單甚至急單，如今數(shù)額巨大的訂單開始增多。 <br> <br>　　“雖然小、短、急的訂單還有不少，但是3000萬(wàn)美元、7000萬(wàn)美元的大訂單開始冒頭了?！蓖踔酒秸f(shuō)，這出乎不少參展商的意料，許多企業(yè)表示形勢(shì)比想象中好，“去年很多客商只是走走看看，今年有更多人坐下來(lái)談生意?！? <br> <br>　　訂單“質(zhì)量”上升，采購(gòu)商的數(shù)量也在增多。據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)，截止到10月16日，本屆廣交會(huì)出口展區(qū)累計(jì)到會(huì)采購(gòu)商57686人，比上屆同期增加14.16%；到會(huì)采購(gòu)商居前五位的國(guó)家（地區(qū)）依次是中國(guó)香港、馬來(lái)西亞、伊朗、美國(guó)和中國(guó)臺(tái)灣。歐洲采購(gòu)商數(shù)量上升最迅猛，比上屆同期多了約6成。 <br> <br>　　不同行業(yè)均感到“暖意”：家電企業(yè)反映中東、南美等新興市場(chǎng)客戶增幅較大，一些大品牌甚至出現(xiàn)采購(gòu)商排隊(duì)等待洽談的現(xiàn)象；五金、工具類企業(yè)發(fā)現(xiàn)歐美客戶回流不少；建材企業(yè)則感覺人流量比上屆要大，新客戶更多，主要集中在亞洲、中東地區(qū)…… <br> <br>　　作為“中國(guó)外貿(mào)晴雨表”的廣交會(huì)，三天來(lái)出現(xiàn)的現(xiàn)象令人驚喜，使人對(duì)中國(guó)外貿(mào)前景信心大增。商務(wù)部副部長(zhǎng)易小準(zhǔn)在展館接受采訪時(shí)說(shuō)：“可以感覺到他們（參展商）的信心已經(jīng)回來(lái)了。同時(shí)，據(jù)國(guó)內(nèi)參展商反映，國(guó)外采購(gòu)商的需求量比上屆有較大的回升?！彼篌w贊同“今年年底中國(guó)外貿(mào)出現(xiàn)正增長(zhǎng)”的預(yù)測(cè)，并認(rèn)為中國(guó)制造業(yè)仍將享有“比較快速的增長(zhǎng)”。 <br> <br>　　本報(bào)綜合消息國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局將于下周公布第三季度經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)。多名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)者預(yù)測(cè)，中國(guó)第三季度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率很可能恢復(fù)至國(guó)際金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)前的水平。 <br> <br>　　經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)者預(yù)測(cè)，第三季度中國(guó)主要經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)將明顯回升，呈現(xiàn)出投資增速加快，消費(fèi)穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)和出口降幅持續(xù)收窄的強(qiáng)勁趨勢(shì)，而通貨膨脹的跡象尚不明顯。國(guó)務(wù)院發(fā)展研究中心對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)研究部副部長(zhǎng)趙晉平表示，“第三季度中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率估計(jì)在9.0%左右。”中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)院數(shù)量經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所所長(zhǎng)汪同三認(rèn)為，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)正處于增長(zhǎng)加速的進(jìn)程中，加上去年受國(guó)際金融危機(jī)影響的整體基數(shù)較低，第三季度中國(guó)GDP的同比增速很可能會(huì)超過9.0%。 <br> <br>　　交通銀行報(bào)告預(yù)計(jì)第三季度GDP的同比增速將達(dá)9%。高盛的預(yù)測(cè)最為樂觀，它認(rèn)為中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇勢(shì)頭強(qiáng)勁，“第三季度的增長(zhǎng)率會(huì)接近9.5%”。</span><br> &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; </p> &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; </FONT></td> &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; </tr> &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; </tbody> &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; </table> &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; </td> &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; </tr> &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; <tr> &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; <td>
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